THE INFLUENCE OF ECOLOGICAL RISK FACTORS ON MORTALITY IN MOSCOW POPULATION. RISK EVALUATION AND PREDICTION

Aim. To assess the influence of temperature, humidity, air pollution on the mortality ofMoscowinhabitants in 2007-2014, to evaluate the possibility of mortality prediction by mathematic modelling.

Material and methods. For each day of 2007-2014 years, the data was analyzed forMoscowinhabitants mortality, temperature, humidity and air pollution (РМ10). Number of deaths was 956436 (48,1% of men and 51,9% women), of those from cardiovascular disorders (CVD) — 536625. Multifactorial regression analysis was done with generalized logistic regression, evaluation of risks ratios (RR), 95%, confidence analysis. The prognostic modelling applied, based on non-linear multifactorial analysis.

Results. The factor “heat wave” increased RR for the death from all cases and from CVD by 1,43 and 1,65 times. Heat waves mostly increased all-cause mortality, and from CVD in women (p<0,005), the increase of air pollution (РМ10) — in men (р<0,005). The highest increase of death risk was found for those 70 years and older, higher humidity worsened it. For the summer 2010 prediction was finer than for 2014 (correlation 90,1% and 45,1%), e. g. for the period of more significant anomalies of temperature and air pollution. Applying multifactorial prediction model for 2007-2014 period with additional evaluation of weather factors influence for last 4 days and all-cause mortality for the last month, correlation was higher for death risk prediction for 1-3 days (88,0%), than for month (45,2%).

Conclusion. Heat waves, increase of air temperature and pollution do increase the risk of all-cause mortality, especially from CVD, in those 70 y. o. and older. Anomal heat increases death risk for women higher than for men. Prediction of mortality by 1-3 days with multifactorial model show better correlation than prediction for month.

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