russjcardiolРоссийский кардиологический журналRussian Journal of Cardiology1560-40712618-7620«SILICEA-POLIGRAF» LLC10.15829/1560-4071-2018-12-98-102russjcardiol-2746Research ArticleМЕТОДЫ ДИАГНОСТИКИDIAGNOSTIC METHODSПредсказательная ценность модели расчета эхокардиографических показателей у здоровых пациентовPredictive validity of the model for calculating of echocardiographic parameters in healthy patientshttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0513-9012СоколовА. А.SokolovA. A.

Доктор медицинских наук, профессор, руководитель отдела ультразвуковой и функциональной диагностики

Томск

asa@cardio-tomsk.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9886-0695СолдатенкоМ. В.SoldatenkoM. V.

Кандидат медицинских наук, научный сотрудник отдела ультразвуковой и функциональной диагностики

Томск

able99@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6531-7223СморгонА. В.SmorgonA. V.

Младший научный сотрудник отдела ультразвуковой и функциональной диагностики

Томск

sav.ssmu@gmail.comНИИ Кардиологии Томский национальный исследовательский медицинский центр Российской академии наукРоссияTomsk National Research Medical Center of RASRussian Federation20182012201801298102Copyright © Соколов А.А., Солдатенко М.В., Сморгон А.В., 20182018Соколов А.А., Солдатенко М.В., Сморгон А.В.Sokolov A.A., Soldatenko M.V., Smorgon A.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://russjcardiol.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/2746Цель

Цель. Разработка модели расчета предсказанных значений основных показателей эхокардиографии (ЭхоКГ) у пациентов различного возраста и ростовесовых показателей.

Материал и методы

Материал и методы. В исследование включили 10604 практически здоровых пациента в возрасте от 1 дня до 65 лет. Среди них 5726 (54%) женского пола. Всем пациентам проводили, помимо общеклинического исследования, ЭхоКГ с измерением стандартных показателей согласно рекомендациям американского общества эхокардиографии. Измеряли площадь поверхности тела (ППТ). Проводили подбор регрессионной модели, которая наиболее адекватно связывает значения ЭхоКГ-показателей и росто-весовые значения.

Результаты

Результаты. Все ЭхоКГ-параметры показали значимую корреляцию с ППТ. Для получения более однородных когорт, пациентов разделили на четыре группы. Выделили новорожденных и взрослых. Группу детей разделили дополнительно по ППТ, на <0,3 м2 и >0,3 м2. Вычисленные уравнения регрессии оказались достоверными в обоих случаях — до и после разделения. Сравнение дисперсий остатков продемонстрировало лучшую зависимость у разделенных групп. При разделении также значительно увеличилась точность прогноза.

Заключение

Заключение. Предложенные математические модели релевантно предсказывают нормальные значения переменных. Метод хорошо подходит для расчета Z-индекса основных ЭхоКГ-показателей.

Aim

Aim. Development of a model for calculating of predicted values of key echocardiography (EchoCG) parameters in patients of different ages and staturelweight values.

Material and methods

Material and methods. The study included 10604 apparently healthy patients aged from 1 day to 65 years; 5726 (54%) of them are female. In addition to the general clinical study, all patients underwent EchoCG with the measurement of standard indicators as recommended by the American Society of Echocardiography. We measured body surface area (BSA) and selected a regression model, which most adequately links the values of the EchoCG parameters and staturel-weight values.

Results

Results. All EchoCG parameters showed a significant correlation with BSA. The patients were divided into four groups to receive more homogeneous cohorts. We have identified newborns and adults. A group of children was additionally divided according to BSA, by less than 0,3 m2 and more than 0,3 m2. The calculated regression equations were reliable in both cases — before and after separation. Comparison of dispersion excesses showed a better dependence among the separated groups. The separation also significantly increased the prediction accuracy.

Conclusion

Conclusion. The proposed mathematical models relevantly predict the normal values of variables. The method is well suited for calculating the Z-index of main EchoCG parameters.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.